INDEPTH - DSS UNIVERSITIES: SHORT TERM FELLOWSHIPS

1.     Name of university / population programme

University of Cape Town / Centre for Actuarial Research (CARe)

2.      City/Country:

Cape Town / South Africa

3.      Head:

Prof R Dorrington

4.      Description of the population programme:

The programme is squarely focussed on teaching, training and research in the field of technical, or formal, demography, with particular emphasis on careful analysis of limited and defective census and survey data. Staff on the programme also work closely with the Africa Centre DSS on modelling and demographic analysis of longitudinal data.

5.      Research objectives:

The Centre for Actuarial Research’s research priorities can be packaged neatly into two distinct groups. The first, AIDS and disease modelling, has been the central theme of the Centre’s work since its inception. The second priority is more recent, and emphasizes research into demographic processes and dynamics. Clearly the two are synergistic, the results of the demographic research feed into the modelling process in the form of parameters, while the outputs from the model can and do suggest the possible existence of demographic inter-relationships that have promoted and enhanced further demographic research.

The emphasis of both strands is unashamedly technical: there is a broad discipline surrounding demography, namely population studies (occasionally referred to as ‘social demography’) which emphasizes policy considerations rather than concern about the accuracy of estimates. Our strong sense of self-identity is derived from a coherent shared understanding and belief that policy is informed better by better science, and that there is a great lack of strong skills in the area of formal or mathematical demography, particularly in Africa, but also globally.

More explicitly, our research foci can be summarized as follows:

AIDS and Disease modelling

·         Modelling the expected future demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and other Southern African Development Community countries;

·         Estimating the number of orphans arising from HIV/AIDS in South and Southern Africa;

·         Assessing the extent to which this impact can be mitigated through prevention and treatment programmes;

·         Monitoring access to antiretroviral treatment in South Africa;

·         Determining which factors are most significant in driving the spread of HIV in South Africa, and which sections of the population are most adversely affected;

·         Analysing empirical data concerning the impact of HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases;

·         Producing estimates for the purpose of costing social security provisions (particularly the foster care grant and the child support grant);

·        Developing statistical techniques for assessing uncertainty in HIV/AIDS models.

Demographic processes and dynamics

·         Measuring and tracking mortality, fertility and migration patterns and trends in the region;

·         Interrogating and improving demographic techniques;

·         Feeding improved estimates into the policy-making framework.

Combined

·         Projecting the population, births, deaths and number of migrants, etc, for the country as a whole and each of the provinces;

·         Assessing the extent to which indirect techniques for estimating demographic parameters are biased in the context of a generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic;

·         Estimating expected fertility and mortality rates against which empirical estimates can be assessed;

·         Modelling the population of small geographically bounded areas, such as demographic surveillance sites (DSSs).

6.      Priority areas:

As described in 4 above)

7.      Sample publications in the last 5 years:

Bradshaw D, Schneider M, Dorrington R E, Bourne D E and Laubscher R (2002) South African cause-of-death profile in transition – 1996 and future trends. SAMJ 92 (8): 618-623.

Dorrington R E (2002) Did They Jump or Were They Pushed?  An investigation into the apparent undercount of whites in the 1996 Census. Southern African Journal of Demography, 8(1): 37-46.

Dorrington R E (2002) How many people are currently infected with HIV in South Africa. SAMJ 92(3): 196-7.

Dorrington R E and Johnson L (2002) Epidemiological and demographic. In Impacts and interventions, Gow J and Desmond C (Eds). University of Natal Press, Pietermaritzburg.

Dorrington R, Bradshaw D, Budlender D,  Bourne D (2002)   The current state and
future projections of the HIV/AIDS  epidemic  in South Africa. S African Dental J 57,408-409.

Dorrington R, Bourne DE, Bradshaw D, Laubscher R, Timaeus IM. (2002) Some impacts of HIV/AIDS on adult mortality in South Africa. S African J Clinical Nutrition 15 (Supplement 2), S3.

Bradshaw D, Groenewald P, Laubscher R, Nannan N, Nojilana, B, Norman R, Pieterse D, Schneider M, Bourne D, Timaeus I, Dorrington R E, Johnson L (2003) Initial burden of disease estimates for South Africa, 2000. SAMJ 93:682-688.

Rob Dorrington (2003) Modelling the Epidemic: Why we should know a little more about models. In Still Everybody’s Business: The enlightening truth about AIDS. Chris Desmond, Locunda Karam and Malcolm Steinberg (eds). Metropolitan Group, Belville.

Moultrie, Tom A. and Ian M. Timæus. 2003. “The South African fertility decline: Evidence gained from two censuses and a DHS survey”, Population Studies 57(3): 265-283.

Debbie Bradshaw, Ria Laubscher, Rob Dorrington, David E Bourne, Ian M Timaeus (2004) Unabated rise in number of adult deaths in South Africa. SAMJ 94(4): 278-279.

Bradshaw, Debbie, Audrey Pettifor, Catherine MacPhail and Rob E Dorrington. 2004. "Trends in youth risk for HIV," in Ijumba, Petrida, C Day and A Ntuli (eds). South African Health Review. Johannesburg: Heath Systems Trust, pp. 135-145.

Dorrington, R. E., Timæus, I. M., Moultrie, T. A. and Nannan, N. 2004. "Estimates of provincial fertility and mortality in South Africa, 1985-1996", Southern African Journal of Demography 9(2):25-57.

Groenewald, P., Bradshaw, D., Dorrington, R. E., Bourne, D. et al. 2005. "Identifying deaths from AIDS in South Africa: an update", AIDS 19(7):744-745.

Johnson, L. F., Coetzee, D. J. and Dorrington, R. E. 2005. "Sentinel surveillance of sexually transmitted infections in South Africa: a review", Sexually Transmitted Infections 81: 287-293

Moultrie, Tom A 2005. “Racism and reproduction – Population rhetoric in South Africa, 1900-1974”, African Studies 64(2):217-242.

Hallett, T. B., Aberle-Grasse, J., Bello, G., Boulos, L.-M. et al. 2006. "Declines in HIV prevalence can be associated with changing sexual behaviour in Uganda, urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti", Sexually Transmitted Infections. 82:i1 - i8.

Moultrie, Tom A. 2006. "The Demography of South Africa [Review]", Population Studies 60(2):240-242.

Johnson L. and Dorrington R. (2006) Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions. Demographic Research. 14: 541–574

Dorrington R E and Moultrie T A (2002) Estimation of the extent of out-migration from the Western Cape 1999-2001.  Report prepared for PAWC as part of a study into patterns of migration in the Western Cape.

Dorrington R E and Bennett S (2002) Modelling the pandemic in the provinces. Perspective.

Dorrington R E, Bourne D, Bradshaw D, Laubscher R and Timaeus I (2002) Some implications of HIV/AIDS on adult mortality in South Africa.  AIDS Analysis Africa, 12(5): 3-6.

Dorrington R E (2002) Population projections for the Western Cape to 2025. Report for the Provincial Authority of the Western Cape.

Dorrington R E, Bradshaw D and Budlender D (2002) HIV/AIDS profile in the provinces of South Africa - Indicators 2002. Centre for Actuarial Research, Medical Research Council and Actuarial Society of South Africa.

Johnson L. and Budlender D. (2002) HIV risk factors: a review of the demographic, socio-economic, bio-medical and behavioural determinants of HIV prevalence in South Africa. CARE Monograph No. 8. Centre for Actuarial Research, University of Cape Town.

Johnson L. and Dorrington R. (2002) The demographic and epidemiological impact of HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention programmes: an evaluation based on the ASSA2000 model. CARE discussion paper (unpublished).

Moultrie, Tom A. and Ian M Timæus. 2002. Trends in South African fertility between 1970 and 1998: An analysis of the 1996 Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey. Cape Town: Medical Research Council.

Dorrington RE, Budlender D and Moultrie T A (2003) Census 2001: Are the numbers what we expect? Report to Statistics Council of South Africa

Dorrington, R. E., Bradshaw, D., Johnson, L. and Budlender, D. 2004. The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: National Indicators 2004. Cape Town: Centre for Actuarial Research, South African Medical Research Council, Actuarial Society of South Africa. Available: http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/ care/RESEARCH/PAPERS/IndicatorsASSA2002.pdf

Moultrie, Tom A. and Rob Dorrington. 2004. Estimation of fertility from the 2001 South Africa Census data. Monograph 12. Centre for Actuarial Research, University of Cape Town. Available at: http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/care/Monographs/Monographs/Mono12.pdf

Dorrington, R. E., Moultrie, T. A. and Timæus, I. M. 2004. Estimation of mortality using the South African 2001 census data. Monograph 11. Centre for Actuarial Research, University of Cape Town. Available at: http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/care/Monographs/Monographs/Mono11.pdf

Johnson, L. (2006) Estimated numbers of patients on antiretroviral treatment in the South African private health sector. AIDS Analysis Africa Online. Jan/Feb 2006, 4-6. Available: http://www.redribbon.co.za/learn/default.asp

Johnson L., Dorrington R. and Matthews A. (2006) An uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis of the ASSA2002 AIDS and Demographic model. Centre for Actuarial Research working paper.

Moultrie, Tom A. forthcoming. “Chapter 3 (Fertility and Reproduction),” in Department of Health (ed). Full Report: 2003 South Africa Demographic and Health Survey. Pretoria: Department of Health.

8.      List and description of staff, areas of expertise:

Prof R Dorrington – estimation of mortality from limited and defective data; population projections; demographic and epidemiological modelling; demographic methods

Dr T Moultrie – estimation of fertility from limited and defective data; analysis of fertility change; development of demographic methods for working with limited and defective census and survey data

Mr L Johnson – demographic and epidemiological modelling

Ms D Budlender – sociology, social policy and demography

Dr R Neupert (joining in mid-2007) – technical demography; Lusophone demography; demography of complex emergencies and genocide

Dr S Helleringer (post doc joining late-2007) – sexual networking; patterns of HIV transmission in rural populations of Southern Africa; develop models of the spread and impact of HIV in the region; development of demographic techniques allowing estimation of mortality and migration rates in situations where only limited (and often defective) data are available

9.      Individual interests of staff with respect to collaborating with a DSS site:

Careful analysis and interpretation of results derived from DSS data relating to fertility, mortality and migration trends.

10.  Any preferred site:

We already have a strong link with Africa Centre; preference for other South African sites; will consider requests for collaboration from any other site

11.  Period of time / length of time staff members can visit a DSS site:

Restricted – by time rather than money, but we are prepared to visit sites for short visits as necessary; and (by negotiation) have some capacity to host visiting scientists in Cape Town

12.  Do you have PhD students you would like to send to DSS sites to work on DSS data?

Yes. We have one PhD student working with Africa Centre data, and several more who will be starting PhDs in 2008. Topics will relate to formal, or technical, demography in some obvious way; and so work done with a DSS would have to relate to this area

13.  Any other issues you think are relevant to the programme / suggestions: